Climate Change

Climate change projections suggest more irregular rainfall and a warmer climate in the Carpathian basin (Láng, 2006; Bartholy et al., 2007). Studies of temperature change over the Carpathian Basin largely agree in projecting an increase in temperature. Two maxima of temperature change are projected, one in winter and one in summer (PRUDENCE Project, WATCH Project, Bartholy et al., 2007). The change in winter maximum is less pronounced than the change in summer maximum. Figure 1 maps the mean seasonal temperature change for the A2 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).


Figure 1: Seasonal temperature change (°C) expected by 2071-2100 for the Carpathian basin using the outputs of 16 RCM simulations, A2 scenario (Bartholy et al., 2007)

Model studies largely agree in projecting a small increase of winter precipitation and a significant decrease of summer precipitation. Figure 2 illustrates large and opposite trends for different seasons, implying that the annual distribution of precipitation can be restructured. The wettest summer season may become the driest (especially in case of A2 scenario), and the driest winter is expected to be the wettest by the end of the 21st century. Figure 2 maps precipitation change.


Figure 2: Seasonal precipitation change (%) expected by 2071-2100 for the Carpathian basin using the outputs of 16 RCM simulations, A2 scenario (Bartholy et al., 2007)

Table 1: Expected mean precipitation change by 2071-2100 in case of A2 and B2 scenario using 16 and 8 RCM simulations, respectively (Bartholy et al., 2007)

Scenario

Spring (MAM)

Summer (JJA)

Autumn (SON)

Winter (DJF)

A2

0 – (+10) %

(-24) – (-33) %

(-3) – (-10) %

(+23) – (+37) %

B2

(+3) – (+12) %

(-10) – (-20) %

(-5) – 0 %

(+20) – (+27) %

[on this page in the future links will be provided to corresponding interactive maps in the European Clearinghouse on Adaptation]

Key references

  • Bartholy, J., Pongrácz, R. and Gelybó, G. (2007) Regional climate change expected in Hungary for 2071-2100. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research 5 (1), 1-17.
  • Láng, I. (2006) The project “VAHAVA”, Executive summary. Ministry for the Environment and Water Management (KvVM) and the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (MTA), Budapest.
  • Watch Project